No sooner are we past the launch of the iPhone 5S and 5C than the rumors begin to mount for the next—and this one is big. Literally. Zach Epstien on BGR reported yesterday about a research note to investors from analyst Peter Misek of Jefferies & Co. that raises his hold rating and $450 target for Apple AAPL -1.21% to a solid buy with a new target of $600. Why the big mood swing on Cupertino? A bigger iPhone.
Apple has solidly resisted any move into the palm-widening world of phablets dominated by Samsung. Whether this has been because of deeply-held notions of human factors engineering, manufacturing difficulties or a desire to not appear imitative of Samsung, the tide may be definitively turning. According to Misek, the iPhone 6 will launch with a 4.8″ screen, probably in September of 2014. He sees that approximately 50% of smartphones shipped in the second-quarter of 2013 had screens larger than the 4″ of the current iPhones and believes that “iPhone 6 will catalyze a large upgrade cycle.” The relative sales weakness of the newest iPhones could be a bonus next year.
Forbes’ Connie Guglielmo explains: “A poor iPhone 5s/5c cycle means a bigger upgrade opportunity for the iPhone 6,” Misek wrote in a report. “We think the 85 million iPhones eligible for an upgrade when the iPhone 6 launches (we think Apple is targeting Sept. 2014) could be boosted by another 5 to 10 million from people who skipped the 5s/5c cycle. While we think a 4.8″ screen iPhone could lead to Apple regaining share versus Android, just the iPhone installed base refresh supports upside to the streets fiscal year 2015 estimates.”
The recent Samsung “Patentgate” fiasco points to an Apple confident in its claims against its arch-rival and willing to take a position in the emerging smartphone sweetspot—which seems to be larger than the current iPhone’s 4″ screen. Where exactly Apple will go with screen size and proportion is still a big guess. At the iPhone 5 line’s current 1136-by-640 resolution (326 ppi) there is room to go up anywhere from full 720 HD (1280-by-720 pixels) all the way up to the Samsung S4′s full 1080 HD of 1080-by-1920 pixels (441 ppi).
Suffice to say, if the switch to iOS 7 has employed a lot of developers to upgrade everyone’s apps, a shift to a larger screen will throw app makers into a positive panic. And this is just as it seemed that one of the main goals of the (not quite) “low cost” iPhone 5C was to consolidate more of the iOS audience on the taller screen proportion. With the introduction of a larger-screened iPhone 6, all of this de-fragmentation would be out the window. It is an open question if an iPhone 6 would partake of the tall iPhone proportion or the squatter iPad proportion. At 1024-by-768 (and 2048-by-1536 for the retina versions) the iPad is more page-like, less cinema.
If I had to predict, I would say that the iPhone 6 would continue in the tall iPhone mode and that it would distinguish itself from the Samsung Galaxy series by making the screen go edge to edge on the sides and limiting the “bezel” to “bumpers” on the top and bottom that hold the home button and front-facing camera and microphone, like the current versions. This would give it a distinctly tall and elegant look, but make it more of a two-handed device for more diminutively scaled users.
One way or another, an iPhone 6 with a larger screen would need to be its own distinct screen to address. Apple will not be able to merely double the iPhone 5 proportion (as it did with the retina iPads and then in reverse for the iPad Minis.) This means that iOS 8 will possibly have even more radical changes than iOS 7 since somehow at least 4 different screen proportions (and in some cases retina resolutions of those proportions) will need to be addressed and finessed with grace. Developers, start your engines—again!
Credit:
Forbes.com
